Hopefully your weather changes soon. Your question will be received by a few of my colleagues who may also respond.
Here are my thoughts. Spontaneous combustion in a composting setup is rare. Your reasoning is correct, when there are pockets of dry ingredients surrounded by by moist organics which are actively decomposing thus creating heat from the breakdown of carbohydrates may reach “flashpoint” temperatures. Compacted decomposing organics may also produce methane gas which may “flash” if surrounding temps. are high enough.
Suggest: Aerate your pile by gently turning / churning at the same time add snow or water to moisten the whole setup.
If there is uniform moisture, then it will be less likely to “flash”. Hope that this is helpful.
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